This study analyses the trends in tobacco consumption in relation to potential tobacco tax policy changes in Uganda. Specifically, we examine the tobacco consumption patterns and simulate the likely impact on consumption of changes in tobacco taxation in the short run (3 years) and the long run (10 years). We find that tobacco consumption has significantly reduced especially among individuals aged 45-50 years. However, despite the decline, the burden of disease (measured in the short-run) due to tobacco use remains very large. With regard to the simulations, we find that increasing the excise tax by 26 percent from the current levels (UGX 15,000 or US$ 4.2) would result in an 8.7 percent reduction in cigarette consumption (with a -0.6 price elasticity of demand). In the long run (using a -0.6 price elasticity of demand), maintaining the same average tax increment at 14 percent over a 10-year period would yield a 33 percent reduction in per capita consumption and an 18 percent reduction in smoking intensity. As such to combat the negative effects of tobacco consumption in Uganda, the country needs to work towards meeting the WHO recommended proportion of tax on tobacco retail prices and changes in tax rates need not only to be made regularly and consistently, but must take into account factors contributing to affordability like incomes and inflation.