Why Do Governments Cut Their Deficits? LESSONS FOR HIGH-DEBT COUNTRIES IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD
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- Détails du fichier
- Size: 25MB
- Créateur / Auteur : Joan Addedis
- Type de ressource : Africa Capacity Report
- # Télécharger: 254
- Accéder: Open to Download
January, 2022
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why-do-governments-cut-their-deficits-lessons-high-debt-countries-post-pandemic-world.pdf
Informations de base
Créateur / Auteur
Benedict Clements, Sanjeev Gupta, Joo Tovar Jalles, and Victor Mylonas
Source / Éditeur
Center for Global development
Détails géographiques et d'audience
Classification et domaines
Objet
Debt
Résumé
We construct a novel database covering more than 450 fiscal consolidation episodes in 185 countries during the period 19792019. Using discrete choice models, we then examine the (broader macroeconomic and political) factors motivating these fiscal consolidation episodes. In emerging and developing countries, consolidations are more likely during good times: when growth is high, and countries experience positive terms of trade shocks with low inflation. In these countries, governments that have been in power longer, with a high margin of majority, are also more likely to consolidate fiscal accounts. The opposite seems to be the case in advanced economies, where new governments are more likely to implement fiscal consolidations and the consolidations themselves are more likely during bad times. Evidence also suggests that tax-based consolidations may be relatively more politically challenging to implement. Finally, consolidations in advanced economies are relatively more likely to take place in the presence of fiscal rules
Mots-clés
fiscal consolidations, filtering, panel data, binary choice models, political economy
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