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EPRCseries73

SECTORAL AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS ON UGANDA: A RECURSIVE DYNAMIC CGE ANALYSIS

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  • Détails du fichier
  • Size: 25MB
  • Créateur / Auteur : Joan Addedis
  • Type de ressource : Africa Capacity Report
  • # Télécharger: 254
  • Accéder: Open to Download

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EPRCseries73.pdf
Informations de base
Créateur / Auteur
TWIMUKYE, Evarist, MARY MATOVU, John Mary, LEVINE, Sebastian, BIRUNGI, Patrick
Source / Éditeur
Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC)
Type de ressource
Détails géographiques et d'audience
Classification et domaines
Objet
Economic Development
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Résumé

This paper analyses the impact of the global economic and financial crisis on Uganda notably on macro-economic aggregates, sectoral output and household welfare, and the potential role of fiscal policy and reform in mitigating the impacts. We find that second round effects from a reduction in financial inflows such as remittances, foreign direct investments and overseas development assistance, as well as reduction in international demand from cash crops such as cotton, tea and coffee, could lead to a reduction in economic growth by 0.6 percentage points on average annually over the period 2008- 2010 compared to a baseline reflecting pre-crisis conditions. A surge in regional exports and early counter-cyclical policies in particular are found to dampen the most adverse impacts of the crisis. The paper also shows that the impact of the governments expansionary 2009/2010 budget could return growth to pre-crisis levels and illustrates how a re-prioritization of government expenditure away from expenditure on administration to more productive sectors of the economy, combined with reforms to improve the efficiency of public spending, could lift long-term growth and reduce poverty, especially in rural areas, even more.
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Mots-clés

Global Economic and Financial Crisis, Computable general equilibrium (CGE)
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